Seasonality
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ED - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ED Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ED Distribution of Daily % Changes
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +6.3% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.3% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +6.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +1.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.36% | 6.35% | 0.59% | -1.49% | -4.46% | 4.73% | -1.61% | -0.05% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.05% | 9.27% | 8.93% | 1.95% | -6.54% | -3.96% | 3.14% | -4.31% | 2.33% | -3.09% | 3.89% | -1.04% |
| 2024 | -0.08% | -3.16% | 4.13% | 3.95% | 1.02% | -5.43% | 9.06% | 5.00% | 2.53% | -2.35% | -0.22% | -11.29% |
| 2023 | 0.00% | -5.43% | 7.07% | 2.93% | -4.46% | -3.11% | 4.93% | -5.36% | -3.86% | 2.64% | 3.59% | 0.95% |
| 2022 | 1.32% | 0.17% | 10.39% | -2.05% | 7.93% | -4.19% | 4.38% | -0.76% | -12.26% | 2.57% | 12.45% | -2.78% |
| 2021 | -2.06% | -6.23% | 13.94% | 3.49% | 0.77% | -7.15% | 2.86% | 3.30% | -3.79% | 3.87% | 3.99% | 9.89% |
| 2020 | -15.46% | -1.04% | 1.03% | -3.73% | -4.17% | 6.81% | -6.18% | 9.06% | 0.89% | -1.95% | -5.22% | |
| Avg | 1.93% | -2.07% | 6.29% | 1.40% | -1.35% | -3.32% | 4.23% | -1.39% | -1.00% | 0.75% | 3.63% | -1.58% |
ED - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years