Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +15.5% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -3.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +21.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -20.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
ECHO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ECHO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.16% | 2.04% | 1.33% | 5.18% | 4.91% | -21.43% | -17.15% | 9.28% | ||||
| 2025 | 20.79% | 12.91% | -18.09% | -12.12% | -21.13% | 56.23% | 17.65% | 89.60% | 23.58% | -1.95% | -2.11% | 48.31% |
| 2024 | -19.19% | -2.09% | 8.70% | 12.21% | 20.08% | -7.24% | 12.75% | -7.67% | 33.87% | 0.97% | 0.92% | -9.45% |
| 2023 | 12.17% | 6.68% | -8.37% | -6.67% | -7.62% | 9.96% | 12.05% | -10.55% | -3.62% | -17.25% | -24.46% | 58.26% |
| 2022 | -10.09% | 2.74% | 0.00% | -4.07% | 2.91% | -19.68% | 2.38% | -6.83% | -10.54% | 14.57% | -7.79% | -4.14% |
| 2021 | -1.18% | 8.40% | 5.73% | 1.88% | 8.34% | -8.30% | -8.19% | 21.08% | -5.52% | -8.04% | 16.67% | -3.73% |
| 2020 | -12.50% | -8.45% | -1.31% | -1.24% | -10.27% | -2.36% | 7.62% | -15.28% | -6.95% | 2.63% | -10.85% | |
| Avg | 1.11% | 2.60% | -2.74% | -0.70% | 0.89% | -0.11% | 2.45% | 15.54% | 3.75% | -3.11% | -2.36% | 13.07% |
ECHO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ECHO Distribution of Daily % Changes