Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -3.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +12.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.0% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +8.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
EBAY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.73% | -0.39% | 0.51% | 13.69% | 5.89% | 2.27% | 2.02% | -9.53% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.93% | -4.06% | 5.09% | 0.63% | 7.78% | 1.76% | 23.22% | -0.93% | 0.38% | -10.60% | 2.18% | 5.21% |
| 2024 | -5.85% | 15.12% | 12.23% | -2.35% | 5.74% | -0.92% | 3.52% | 6.77% | 10.17% | -11.67% | 10.51% | -2.12% |
| 2023 | 19.36% | -7.27% | -2.78% | 4.64% | -7.85% | 5.05% | -0.40% | 1.17% | -1.54% | -11.02% | 5.18% | 6.36% |
| 2022 | -9.67% | -9.12% | 5.33% | -9.33% | -5.84% | -14.38% | 16.70% | -8.80% | -16.59% | 8.23% | 14.63% | -8.74% |
| 2021 | 12.46% | 0.16% | 8.54% | -8.90% | 9.45% | 15.33% | -2.85% | 12.77% | -9.21% | 10.12% | -11.84% | -1.42% |
| 2020 | 3.69% | -13.22% | 32.50% | 14.75% | 15.17% | 5.40% | -0.61% | -4.89% | -8.58% | 6.21% | -0.36% | |
| Avg | 4.99% | -0.27% | 2.24% | 4.41% | 4.27% | 3.47% | 6.80% | 1.73% | -3.61% | -3.92% | 4.48% | -0.18% |
EBAY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
EBAY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
EBAY Distribution of Daily % Changes