Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.0% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.9% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +33.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
DXCM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DXCM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DXCM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.05% | 0.53% | -14.48% | -5.18% | 23.83% | -8.67% | 23.91% | 9.12% | -3.66% | |||
| 2025 | 11.65% | 1.77% | -22.72% | 4.52% | 20.20% | 1.74% | -7.47% | -6.72% | -10.68% | -13.48% | 9.02% | 4.57% |
| 2024 | -2.21% | -5.18% | 20.54% | -8.15% | -6.77% | -4.54% | -40.18% | 2.24% | -3.32% | 5.13% | 10.66% | -0.28% |
| 2023 | -5.43% | 3.66% | 4.66% | 4.44% | -3.36% | 9.59% | -3.07% | -18.93% | -7.61% | -4.79% | 30.05% | 7.42% |
| 2022 | -19.83% | -3.85% | 23.60% | -20.14% | -27.08% | 0.06% | 10.13% | 0.16% | -2.03% | 49.96% | -3.73% | -2.61% |
| 2021 | 1.39% | 6.12% | -9.65% | 7.43% | -4.33% | 15.60% | 20.73% | 2.70% | 3.29% | 13.96% | -9.73% | -4.56% |
| 2020 | 14.64% | -2.44% | 24.48% | 12.86% | 7.16% | 7.43% | -2.33% | -3.10% | -22.48% | 0.03% | 15.65% | |
| Avg | -0.73% | 2.53% | -0.07% | 1.06% | 2.19% | 2.99% | 1.64% | -1.97% | -3.91% | 4.72% | 6.05% | 3.36% |
DXCM Distribution of Daily % Changes