Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.4% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -1.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -4.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
DUK - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DUK - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DUK Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.53% | 8.75% | 0.07% | -1.06% | -4.45% | 3.14% | -0.91% | -3.56% | -4.79% | |||
| 2025 | 3.94% | 5.88% | 3.81% | 0.04% | -2.65% | 0.24% | 3.08% | 1.57% | 1.03% | 0.44% | 0.58% | -5.43% |
| 2024 | -1.25% | -3.09% | 5.31% | 1.60% | 6.46% | -3.22% | 9.02% | 5.26% | 1.18% | -0.03% | 2.51% | -7.95% |
| 2023 | -0.52% | -7.05% | 2.34% | 2.50% | -8.77% | 0.50% | 4.32% | -4.08% | -0.61% | 0.71% | 5.01% | 5.16% |
| 2022 | 0.15% | -3.47% | 11.20% | -1.34% | 3.07% | -4.72% | 2.54% | -1.85% | -12.99% | 0.17% | 8.36% | 3.06% |
| 2021 | 2.66% | -8.00% | 12.78% | 4.31% | 0.49% | -1.50% | 6.47% | 0.50% | -6.76% | 4.53% | -3.97% | 8.13% |
| 2020 | -5.16% | -11.80% | 4.67% | 2.33% | -6.70% | 6.07% | -4.09% | 10.23% | 4.01% | 1.60% | -1.19% | |
| Avg | 1.42% | -1.73% | 3.39% | 1.53% | -0.50% | -1.75% | 4.37% | -0.89% | -1.32% | 1.64% | 2.35% | 0.30% |
DUK Distribution of Daily % Changes