Seasonality
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DOV - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.20% | 12.17% | -7.56% | 8.62% | -6.42% | 6.11% | -8.77% | 1.20% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.57% | -2.15% | -11.62% | -2.86% | 4.46% | 3.08% | -1.14% | -0.98% | -6.73% | 8.77% | 2.39% | 5.38% |
| 2024 | -2.62% | 10.76% | 7.14% | 1.19% | 2.81% | -1.83% | 2.11% | 1.25% | 3.07% | -1.26% | 9.02% | -8.89% |
| 2023 | 12.13% | -0.93% | 1.36% | -3.80% | -8.44% | 10.74% | -1.14% | 1.95% | -5.93% | -6.85% | 9.02% | 8.96% |
| 2022 | -6.44% | -7.38% | 0.03% | -15.04% | 0.84% | -9.40% | 10.19% | -6.15% | -6.71% | 12.10% | 9.01% | -4.61% |
| 2021 | -7.73% | 6.23% | 11.25% | 8.79% | 1.21% | 0.07% | 10.97% | 4.63% | -10.82% | 8.73% | -2.81% | 10.83% |
| 2020 | -9.35% | -18.30% | 11.57% | 4.37% | -0.71% | 6.60% | 7.19% | -1.37% | 2.19% | 10.67% | 3.46% | |
| Avg | 1.19% | 1.33% | -2.53% | 1.21% | -0.17% | 1.15% | 2.69% | 1.32% | -4.75% | 3.95% | 6.22% | 2.52% |
DOV - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DOV Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DOV Distribution of Daily % Changes