Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +5.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +29.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.27% | 6.78% | 2.39% | 11.50% | -5.44% | -4.85% | 4.98% | 6.17% | ||||
| 2025 | -7.60% | -4.60% | -7.56% | 12.04% | 6.84% | 2.35% | 1.21% | -4.99% | 3.86% | -1.43% | -6.04% | -2.61% |
| 2024 | 4.37% | 4.52% | -1.05% | -3.65% | 4.73% | 5.48% | -1.68% | 1.42% | 7.56% | 10.13% | 9.80% | -8.79% |
| 2023 | 14.31% | -9.06% | -4.58% | 0.85% | 3.34% | 12.44% | 9.44% | 5.70% | -7.24% | 2.76% | 11.60% | -2.15% |
| 2022 | -15.63% | -9.59% | 6.05% | 3.05% | -4.47% | -6.09% | 2.02% | -6.66% | -18.95% | 1.08% | 12.18% | -9.85% |
| 2021 | 3.18% | -6.41% | 5.44% | 9.56% | -1.78% | -0.01% | 2.46% | 6.32% | -11.21% | 9.25% | 6.29% | 6.16% |
| 2020 | -2.34% | 16.56% | 7.62% | -3.97% | -0.18% | 12.97% | -3.05% | -4.98% | -1.68% | -6.62% | 4.43% | |
| Avg | 0.98% | -2.96% | 2.47% | 5.85% | -0.11% | 1.30% | 4.48% | -0.21% | -5.16% | 3.35% | 4.53% | -2.13% |
DLR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DLR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DLR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DLR Distribution of Daily % Changes