Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.38% | -3.77% | -9.80% | -5.62% | 2.08% | 4.49% | 2.36% | 3.83% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.97% | -6.73% | -1.18% | -2.77% | -4.73% | 4.19% | -0.19% | 4.39% | -3.50% | 8.64% | 5.29% | 1.08% |
| 2024 | 3.70% | 5.51% | -1.24% | -1.24% | 4.13% | -2.60% | 10.90% | -2.80% | 3.33% | -11.64% | -2.43% | -4.12% |
| 2023 | -0.39% | -6.37% | 1.93% | -6.00% | -3.08% | 4.64% | 6.28% | 3.90% | -6.38% | -12.59% | 16.30% | 3.70% |
| 2022 | -13.14% | -3.98% | 6.99% | -14.39% | 5.05% | -3.81% | 14.97% | -7.40% | -4.22% | -2.56% | 8.64% | -2.83% |
| 2021 | 7.07% | -7.64% | 2.56% | 12.82% | 0.87% | 4.85% | 10.85% | 8.96% | -6.02% | 2.41% | 3.17% | 2.36% |
| 2020 | -10.13% | -4.13% | 18.10% | 1.93% | 6.25% | 15.25% | 1.31% | 4.38% | 6.60% | -2.14% | -1.03% | |
| Avg | -1.68% | -4.73% | -0.70% | 0.13% | 0.89% | 2.57% | 8.63% | 1.39% | -2.07% | -1.52% | 4.80% | -0.14% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.6% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -4.7% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +8.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.1% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
DHR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DHR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DHR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DHR Distribution of Daily % Changes