Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +6.9% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.4% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +37.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.27% | 13.30% | -7.52% | -0.48% | 0.36% | 8.75% | 10.38% | 0.60% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.64% | 6.01% | -2.14% | 5.85% | -2.74% | 3.63% | -6.38% | 8.50% | 4.92% | -7.27% | 7.52% | -8.27% |
| 2024 | -6.36% | -2.76% | 6.58% | 4.40% | 2.74% | -3.59% | 4.52% | 10.31% | -1.10% | 0.22% | 5.06% | -7.25% |
| 2023 | -4.66% | -6.82% | 2.25% | -1.40% | -4.44% | 5.96% | -3.31% | -2.74% | -7.33% | 7.38% | 5.48% | 0.47% |
| 2022 | -21.62% | -2.78% | 4.26% | -1.72% | 5.36% | -5.70% | 3.20% | -8.24% | -2.09% | 17.72% | 5.69% | 3.04% |
| 2021 | 8.86% | -10.50% | 11.03% | 3.25% | -0.16% | 0.23% | 7.95% | 7.78% | -4.92% | 1.45% | 1.29% | 16.36% |
| 2020 | -4.17% | -24.29% | 38.18% | 7.42% | -3.65% | 12.03% | -12.46% | 2.92% | 7.21% | 1.51% | -3.88% | |
| Avg | -1.14% | -1.10% | -1.40% | 6.87% | 1.22% | 0.80% | 4.06% | 0.52% | -1.27% | 4.45% | 4.43% | 0.08% |
DGX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DGX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DGX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DGX Distribution of Daily % Changes