Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.65% | -13.76% | -14.91% | 12.32% | -5.55% | 15.85% | 6.30% | 10.63% | ||||
| 2025 | 12.57% | 5.09% | -7.90% | 5.54% | 8.17% | 18.15% | 1.52% | -2.00% | 10.90% | -6.48% | -22.02% | 14.17% |
| 2024 | 5.37% | 19.55% | 10.56% | -6.14% | -14.82% | -1.21% | 1.78% | 16.25% | 10.89% | 9.79% | 15.18% | -7.05% |
| 2023 | 18.64% | -5.63% | 16.28% | -3.73% | 6.70% | 17.05% | 18.80% | -7.34% | -5.54% | -5.69% | 25.39% | 5.22% |
| 2022 | -23.78% | -7.52% | 11.66% | -30.51% | -5.55% | -16.56% | 8.70% | -14.12% | -17.45% | -11.97% | 33.82% | -16.19% |
| 2021 | 35.39% | -12.30% | -22.63% | 9.18% | 4.97% | 18.67% | -2.27% | 9.82% | 7.62% | -5.43% | -8.23% | -16.71% |
| Avg | 6.42% | -2.43% | -1.16% | -2.22% | -1.01% | 8.65% | 5.81% | 0.52% | 1.29% | -3.96% | 8.83% | -4.11% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.8% with a 60% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -4.1% with only a 40% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +7.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -8.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
DASH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
DASH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
DASH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
DASH Distribution of Daily % Changes