Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.9% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -3.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +11.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +11.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +15.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
CVX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.07% | 6.61% | 10.78% | -6.57% | -4.75% | -9.15% | 18.74% | 1.61% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.00% | 7.50% | 5.47% | -18.67% | 1.69% | 4.75% | 5.90% | 7.09% | -3.31% | 1.56% | -3.11% | 0.85% |
| 2024 | -1.16% | 4.23% | 3.77% | 2.24% | 1.65% | -3.62% | 2.59% | -6.77% | -0.46% | 1.05% | 9.92% | -10.55% |
| 2023 | -3.05% | -6.80% | 1.49% | 3.32% | -9.78% | 4.47% | 4.01% | -0.62% | 4.67% | -13.57% | -0.43% | 3.87% |
| 2022 | 11.91% | 10.80% | 13.08% | -3.78% | 12.40% | -17.11% | 13.12% | -2.62% | -9.10% | 25.91% | 2.12% | -2.08% |
| 2021 | 0.89% | 19.03% | 4.79% | -1.64% | 1.93% | 0.92% | -2.80% | -3.67% | 4.84% | 12.85% | -0.28% | 3.97% |
| 2020 | -11.86% | -22.37% | 26.97% | 1.14% | -2.69% | -5.93% | 1.43% | -14.21% | -3.47% | 27.28% | -3.13% | |
| Avg | 4.61% | 4.22% | 2.43% | 0.27% | 0.61% | -3.21% | 5.09% | -0.86% | -2.93% | 4.06% | 5.92% | -1.18% |
CVX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CVX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CVX Distribution of Daily % Changes