Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +23.0% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -10.3% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +35.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +14.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -146.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
CVNA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CVNA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CVNA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.95% | -16.69% | -5.92% | 25.90% | -7.78% | -9.84% | -5.26% | 17.80% | -12.95% | |||
| 2025 | 21.70% | -5.81% | -10.30% | 16.87% | 33.89% | 3.00% | 15.79% | -4.68% | 1.43% | -18.74% | 22.17% | 12.69% |
| 2024 | -18.66% | 76.34% | 15.78% | -5.68% | 20.57% | 28.75% | 3.50% | 13.05% | 15.60% | 42.04% | 5.30% | -21.91% |
| 2023 | 114.56% | -7.37% | 3.93% | -29.11% | 86.17% | 100.62% | 77.28% | 9.58% | -16.62% | -35.68% | 16.00% | 69.03% |
| 2022 | -30.08% | -7.15% | -20.72% | -51.41% | -49.21% | -23.30% | 29.10% | 13.17% | -38.47% | -33.35% | -43.02% | -38.52% |
| 2021 | 9.04% | 8.54% | -7.44% | 8.71% | -7.07% | 13.86% | 11.84% | -2.81% | -8.08% | 0.54% | -7.51% | -17.34% |
| 2020 | 4.62% | -33.55% | 45.42% | 16.07% | 29.28% | 28.91% | 39.37% | 3.29% | -16.91% | 34.99% | -4.26% | |
| Avg | 15.27% | 7.50% | -8.32% | 1.53% | 13.23% | 20.34% | 23.02% | 12.21% | -7.14% | -10.35% | 4.66% | -0.05% |
CVNA Distribution of Daily % Changes