Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.5% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -4.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +45.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.51% | -15.20% | -3.36% | -3.21% | 8.23% | 25.50% | 2.52% | 20.45% | ||||
| 2025 | -10.75% | 0.33% | -8.95% | -21.19% | 14.34% | 11.87% | 11.80% | -3.73% | -4.19% | 15.09% | -1.07% | 11.98% |
| 2024 | -8.51% | 17.53% | 6.59% | -15.48% | -8.98% | -0.89% | 18.16% | -18.99% | -0.39% | -9.34% | 11.47% | -7.26% |
| 2023 | 11.63% | -9.83% | -7.99% | -5.80% | 1.71% | 8.72% | -0.34% | -1.30% | -5.24% | -14.09% | 17.06% | 19.95% |
| 2022 | -12.48% | -11.71% | -2.47% | -14.95% | -3.08% | -8.59% | 17.09% | -18.08% | -4.12% | 7.85% | 7.69% | -4.67% |
| 2021 | 3.68% | 10.46% | 1.29% | 14.71% | 1.67% | 9.45% | 10.00% | 9.08% | -7.03% | 8.73% | -18.46% | 2.98% |
| 2020 | 0.64% | -18.87% | 14.63% | 24.19% | -2.96% | 14.13% | 10.03% | 3.43% | 0.55% | 3.00% | 6.54% | |
| Avg | -1.82% | -1.11% | -4.82% | -4.47% | 5.44% | 6.16% | 10.48% | -3.83% | -2.92% | 1.46% | 3.28% | 4.92% |
CRL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CRL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CRL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CRL Distribution of Daily % Changes