Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.9% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +33.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.55% | 3.33% | -10.49% | 5.32% | 18.05% | -7.89% | 14.65% | 9.29% | ||||
| 2025 | 12.43% | -3.53% | -4.99% | -6.70% | -0.08% | 2.06% | -2.64% | 0.81% | -11.55% | -9.62% | 13.62% | 1.73% |
| 2024 | 2.59% | -3.68% | 10.48% | -2.07% | -11.41% | -0.47% | 9.54% | 8.13% | -0.88% | 5.42% | 15.61% | -11.22% |
| 2023 | 13.68% | 2.86% | -1.83% | 1.46% | 5.90% | 10.83% | -0.86% | 9.17% | -6.03% | -11.82% | 6.81% | 17.51% |
| 2022 | 6.44% | -1.70% | 6.34% | 0.18% | -0.28% | -15.55% | 4.75% | -3.44% | -17.11% | 5.65% | 5.42% | -6.38% |
| 2021 | -11.03% | 14.24% | -3.13% | 7.11% | -4.62% | -6.70% | 0.84% | 1.96% | -0.76% | -5.30% | -16.28% | 8.07% |
| 2020 | -15.68% | -29.82% | 29.33% | 1.05% | 3.17% | 2.80% | -2.75% | -5.31% | -7.22% | 20.05% | 2.87% | |
| Avg | 4.78% | -0.60% | -4.78% | 4.95% | 1.23% | -2.08% | 4.15% | 2.31% | -6.94% | -3.81% | 7.54% | 2.10% |
CPAY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CPAY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CPAY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CPAY Distribution of Daily % Changes