Seasonality
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COF - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +7.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -10.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.4% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -24.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.67% | -10.30% | -6.75% | 4.86% | -1.34% | 6.75% | 4.18% | 8.77% | ||||
| 2025 | 14.24% | -1.26% | -10.60% | 0.54% | 5.27% | 12.48% | 1.05% | 5.97% | -6.44% | 3.49% | -0.04% | 10.63% |
| 2024 | 3.20% | 2.15% | 8.20% | -3.67% | -3.64% | 0.60% | 9.35% | -2.52% | 1.91% | 8.72% | 18.33% | -7.13% |
| 2023 | 28.01% | -7.88% | -11.84% | 1.19% | 7.84% | 4.95% | 6.99% | -12.03% | -5.22% | 4.37% | 10.87% | 17.43% |
| 2022 | 1.13% | 4.86% | -14.34% | -5.08% | 3.14% | -18.51% | 5.41% | -3.11% | -12.90% | 15.03% | -2.04% | -9.96% |
| 2021 | 5.47% | 15.67% | 5.86% | 17.17% | 8.12% | -3.79% | 4.53% | 3.40% | -2.41% | -6.75% | -6.60% | 3.24% |
| 2020 | -11.22% | -42.87% | 28.44% | 5.76% | -8.01% | 1.93% | 8.37% | 4.10% | 1.70% | 17.34% | 15.43% | |
| Avg | 7.06% | -1.14% | -10.34% | 6.21% | 3.59% | -0.79% | 4.78% | 0.01% | -3.49% | 4.42% | 6.31% | 4.94% |
COF - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
COF Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
COF Distribution of Daily % Changes