Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.23% | 10.02% | -0.63% | -1.08% | -4.70% | 5.42% | -5.90% | -0.43% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.98% | 11.55% | 2.82% | -1.94% | -3.92% | -1.35% | 6.52% | -2.31% | 2.36% | 0.40% | 3.35% | -7.30% |
| 2024 | -1.57% | 1.29% | 5.18% | 0.45% | 4.68% | -5.40% | 8.85% | 5.54% | 4.08% | -1.44% | 0.91% | -4.39% |
| 2023 | -0.22% | -5.92% | 4.09% | 1.43% | -6.13% | 1.33% | 3.95% | -7.24% | -5.48% | 2.32% | 5.39% | 2.31% |
| 2022 | -1.03% | 0.14% | 9.26% | -1.79% | 4.12% | -4.98% | 1.82% | -1.08% | -13.77% | -2.04% | 7.92% | 3.70% |
| 2021 | -6.77% | -4.14% | 13.14% | 5.18% | -1.90% | -5.83% | 4.59% | 4.51% | -6.86% | 1.04% | -1.78% | 10.54% |
| 2020 | -11.28% | -2.76% | -2.83% | 3.38% | -0.27% | 9.86% | -5.13% | 1.52% | 3.13% | -2.21% | -0.86% | |
| Avg | -1.39% | 0.24% | 4.44% | -0.08% | -0.64% | -1.59% | 4.24% | -0.95% | -3.02% | 0.56% | 2.26% | 0.66% |
Mar is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Mar averages +4.4% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.0% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +3.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
CMS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CMS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CMS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CMS Distribution of Daily % Changes