Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.39% | 1.21% | -7.85% | 24.72% | -3.33% | 10.30% | -11.08% | -0.46% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.19% | 3.84% | -14.87% | -6.25% | 10.03% | 1.87% | 12.25% | 8.94% | 6.01% | 3.62% | 14.27% | 2.50% |
| 2024 | -0.11% | 12.97% | 9.69% | -4.13% | 0.32% | -1.70% | 5.37% | 7.86% | 3.50% | 1.60% | 14.57% | -7.05% |
| 2023 | 2.99% | -1.97% | -1.73% | -1.61% | -12.39% | 19.94% | 6.38% | -11.16% | -0.69% | -5.32% | 4.42% | 6.87% |
| 2022 | 1.26% | -6.98% | 0.48% | -7.76% | 11.32% | -7.46% | 14.35% | -2.02% | -5.51% | 20.15% | 3.37% | -3.53% |
| 2021 | 3.22% | 8.62% | 2.33% | -2.73% | 2.61% | -5.24% | -4.80% | 2.31% | -4.84% | 6.80% | -12.00% | 4.00% |
| 2020 | -4.68% | -10.56% | 20.82% | 4.58% | 2.16% | 11.54% | 7.91% | 1.89% | 4.13% | 5.74% | -1.76% | |
| Avg | 3.82% | 1.86% | -3.21% | 3.29% | 1.88% | 2.84% | 4.86% | 2.31% | 0.06% | 5.17% | 5.06% | 0.17% |
CMI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +5.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +18.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
CMI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CMI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CMI Distribution of Daily % Changes