Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +9.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.1% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +13.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -22.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.05% | -4.24% | -14.00% | 6.19% | -6.27% | 6.72% | 9.47% | -9.99% | ||||
| 2025 | -3.23% | -7.51% | -6.97% | 0.62% | -0.87% | 12.12% | -23.63% | -1.73% | -7.00% | -19.14% | 8.93% | 7.18% |
| 2024 | 5.33% | 11.62% | 8.11% | 8.70% | -0.95% | 0.10% | -13.30% | 3.24% | 2.75% | -3.21% | 10.31% | -1.98% |
| 2023 | 18.66% | -9.43% | 14.57% | 21.03% | 0.43% | 3.01% | -8.26% | -1.82% | -4.92% | 6.03% | 13.39% | 3.85% |
| 2022 | -15.02% | 2.54% | 3.85% | -7.99% | -3.65% | -6.79% | 19.66% | 2.08% | -5.89% | -0.29% | 8.58% | -14.72% |
| 2021 | 6.73% | -2.57% | -1.47% | 5.01% | -8.05% | 13.00% | 20.20% | 2.14% | -4.51% | -2.12% | -7.62% | 6.38% |
| 2020 | -10.75% | -15.41% | 34.25% | 14.27% | 4.83% | 9.77% | 13.43% | -5.08% | -3.40% | 7.32% | 7.54% | |
| Avg | 2.92% | -2.91% | -1.62% | 9.69% | -0.73% | 4.71% | 1.99% | 2.89% | -4.11% | -3.69% | 6.82% | 1.38% |
CMG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CMG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CMG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CMG Distribution of Daily % Changes