Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.45% | 4.07% | -7.27% | -4.72% | -8.03% | -1.29% | -1.07% | 9.27% | ||||
| 2025 | -9.56% | 6.60% | 2.84% | -6.48% | 1.08% | 3.24% | -6.04% | 2.23% | -7.51% | -10.45% | -4.13% | 11.99% |
| 2024 | 6.84% | -7.93% | 1.17% | -11.44% | 5.04% | -2.17% | 6.25% | -4.12% | 5.56% | 5.33% | -1.10% | -13.10% |
| 2023 | 13.40% | -5.54% | 1.99% | 9.97% | -4.88% | 5.59% | 9.69% | 3.31% | -5.18% | -6.27% | 1.45% | 4.68% |
| 2022 | -0.18% | -6.46% | 0.13% | -14.60% | 11.37% | -11.38% | -3.74% | -3.54% | -18.96% | 9.18% | 15.44% | -4.56% |
| 2021 | -4.97% | 6.35% | 2.64% | 4.25% | 2.12% | -0.56% | 3.62% | 3.14% | -7.83% | -7.64% | -2.82% | 0.70% |
| 2020 | -6.39% | -14.41% | 9.45% | 5.24% | -0.98% | 9.80% | 4.70% | 3.24% | -8.23% | 18.94% | 4.30% | |
| Avg | 2.16% | -1.33% | -1.84% | -1.94% | 1.71% | -1.08% | 2.64% | 0.95% | -5.11% | -3.01% | 4.63% | 0.67% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.6% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +2.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
CMCSA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CMCSA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CMCSA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CMCSA Distribution of Daily % Changes