Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.4% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +20.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.79% | 9.28% | -11.01% | 4.01% | -1.15% | 1.31% | 1.99% | 2.83% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.77% | 5.67% | -1.00% | -9.76% | -0.72% | -2.24% | -2.43% | -0.33% | -5.94% | 0.07% | -2.55% | -1.54% |
| 2024 | 5.59% | 0.56% | 4.18% | 3.43% | -0.55% | -3.11% | -5.47% | 4.24% | 2.79% | -4.59% | 10.52% | -4.92% |
| 2023 | 0.31% | 3.95% | 5.53% | 9.85% | -4.54% | 8.42% | -4.55% | 1.44% | -5.31% | -0.75% | 6.58% | -2.14% |
| 2022 | 0.15% | -4.42% | 1.56% | -1.83% | -7.44% | 2.89% | -5.06% | -4.56% | -14.66% | 3.77% | 10.83% | -1.54% |
| 2021 | -3.21% | -6.44% | 10.92% | -1.84% | 0.28% | -0.59% | 1.60% | -3.08% | -1.30% | 5.80% | 2.60% | 14.68% |
| 2020 | -6.03% | -7.68% | 9.05% | 7.61% | 2.97% | 24.62% | -0.27% | -2.21% | -5.68% | -0.43% | -0.62% | |
| Avg | 3.07% | 0.37% | 0.36% | 1.84% | -0.93% | 1.38% | 1.53% | -0.43% | -4.44% | -0.23% | 4.59% | 0.65% |
CHD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CHD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CHD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CHD Distribution of Daily % Changes