Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 4Y.
May averages +12.1% with a 80% win rate across 4 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -7.4% with only a 0% win rate across 4 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +23.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 4Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -63.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
CEG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
4 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -20.55% | 17.53% | -15.23% | 12.09% | -7.92% | -13.69% | 5.79% | 7.52% | ||||
| 2025 | 34.09% | -16.48% | -19.37% | 10.82% | 37.20% | 5.43% | 7.77% | -11.35% | 6.85% | 14.57% | -3.24% | -3.04% |
| 2024 | 4.37% | 38.07% | 9.95% | 0.59% | 17.02% | -7.82% | -5.23% | 3.83% | 32.19% | 1.13% | -2.28% | -12.80% |
| 2023 | -0.99% | -11.95% | 4.82% | -1.40% | 8.94% | 8.96% | 5.57% | 8.06% | 4.72% | 3.52% | 7.44% | -3.43% |
| 2022 | -3.89% | 22.34% | 5.26% | 5.11% | -7.76% | 15.44% | 23.66% | 1.96% | 13.64% | 1.83% | -10.31% | |
| Avg | 4.23% | 4.66% | 0.50% | 5.47% | 12.07% | -2.98% | 5.87% | 6.05% | 11.43% | 8.21% | 0.94% | -7.40% |
CEG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2022 to 2026
CEG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CEG Distribution of Daily % Changes