Seasonality
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CDW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +3.2% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +4.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +1.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.20% | -2.48% | -1.32% | 13.13% | -7.83% | 12.11% | 5.10% | -5.68% | ||||
| 2025 | 14.42% | -10.21% | -10.07% | 0.19% | 12.72% | -0.98% | -2.36% | -5.16% | -3.33% | 0.06% | -9.10% | -5.56% |
| 2024 | -0.26% | 8.87% | 3.89% | -5.44% | -7.30% | 0.10% | -2.56% | 3.73% | 0.29% | -16.82% | -6.21% | -1.07% |
| 2023 | 9.77% | 3.56% | -3.72% | -12.98% | 1.59% | 6.88% | 1.95% | 13.20% | -4.45% | -0.67% | 5.53% | 7.80% |
| 2022 | -7.68% | -8.50% | 3.73% | -8.78% | 4.42% | -7.24% | 15.21% | -5.71% | -8.56% | 10.72% | 9.50% | -5.33% |
| 2021 | -0.10% | 19.47% | 5.65% | 7.59% | -7.02% | 5.58% | 4.98% | 9.64% | -9.27% | 2.54% | 1.71% | 8.14% |
| 2020 | -12.19% | -18.34% | 18.79% | 0.45% | 4.75% | 0.06% | -1.90% | 5.17% | 2.57% | 6.76% | 1.00% | |
| Avg | 1.49% | -0.21% | -2.88% | 1.79% | -0.42% | 3.03% | 3.20% | 2.30% | -3.36% | -0.27% | 1.37% | 0.83% |
CDW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CDW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CDW Distribution of Daily % Changes