Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.6% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +13.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.19% | 1.70% | -7.81% | 18.61% | 13.76% | 0.10% | -9.41% | -4.47% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.95% | -15.83% | 1.53% | 17.07% | -3.58% | 7.34% | 18.31% | -3.88% | 0.24% | -3.58% | -7.93% | 0.24% |
| 2024 | 5.91% | 5.52% | 2.27% | -11.45% | 3.87% | 7.49% | -13.03% | 0.47% | 0.78% | 1.88% | 11.11% | -2.07% |
| 2023 | 13.81% | 5.53% | 8.89% | -0.30% | 10.25% | 1.56% | -0.22% | 2.75% | -2.55% | 2.37% | 13.93% | -0.33% |
| 2022 | -18.36% | -0.47% | 8.60% | -8.28% | 1.91% | -2.41% | 24.03% | -6.62% | -5.95% | -7.37% | 13.64% | -6.63% |
| 2021 | -4.43% | 8.21% | -2.91% | -3.81% | -3.63% | 7.74% | 7.92% | 10.72% | -7.36% | 14.31% | 2.51% | 5.01% |
| 2020 | -8.28% | -0.15% | 22.85% | 12.52% | 5.12% | 13.85% | 1.52% | -3.86% | 2.57% | 6.34% | 17.31% | |
| Avg | -1.53% | -0.52% | 1.49% | 4.96% | 5.01% | 3.85% | 5.92% | 0.83% | -3.12% | 1.70% | 6.60% | 2.25% |
CDNS - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CDNS - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CDNS Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CDNS Distribution of Daily % Changes