Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +10.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
CBRE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.93% | -13.31% | -8.26% | 5.37% | -12.39% | 7.72% | 9.00% | 4.12% | ||||
| 2025 | 10.24% | -1.93% | -7.86% | -6.58% | 2.32% | 12.08% | 11.15% | 4.10% | -2.81% | -3.26% | 6.17% | -0.64% |
| 2024 | -7.28% | 6.47% | 5.82% | -10.64% | 1.36% | 1.18% | 26.48% | 2.16% | 8.11% | 5.21% | 6.89% | -6.21% |
| 2023 | 11.11% | -0.43% | -14.48% | 5.29% | -2.27% | 7.73% | 3.22% | 2.09% | -13.16% | -6.12% | 13.87% | 17.90% |
| 2022 | -6.61% | -4.43% | -5.50% | -9.27% | -0.24% | -11.14% | 16.32% | -7.78% | -14.50% | 5.08% | 12.21% | -3.32% |
| 2021 | -2.77% | 24.25% | 4.41% | 7.70% | 3.03% | -2.34% | 12.52% | -0.17% | 1.10% | 6.90% | -8.18% | 13.54% |
| 2020 | -8.04% | -32.83% | 13.84% | 2.45% | 2.82% | -3.12% | 7.35% | -0.13% | 7.30% | 21.31% | 2.58% | |
| Avg | 1.77% | 0.37% | -8.39% | 0.82% | -0.82% | 2.58% | 10.79% | 1.29% | -3.56% | 2.52% | 8.71% | 3.97% |
CBRE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CBRE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CBRE Distribution of Daily % Changes