Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +7.0% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
CB - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CB - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CB Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.82% | 10.11% | -4.10% | 0.33% | -4.67% | 9.65% | 2.92% | -3.44% | -0.70% | |||
| 2025 | -1.60% | 5.00% | 6.12% | -5.27% | 3.89% | -2.19% | -8.17% | 3.39% | 2.61% | -1.88% | 6.95% | 5.38% |
| 2024 | 8.41% | 2.72% | 3.31% | -4.05% | 8.92% | -5.49% | 8.07% | 3.09% | 1.80% | -2.06% | 2.23% | -3.99% |
| 2023 | 3.12% | -7.24% | -7.57% | 3.80% | -7.82% | 4.11% | 6.15% | -1.73% | 4.07% | 3.09% | 6.90% | -1.12% |
| 2022 | 2.05% | 3.22% | 5.44% | -3.48% | 2.34% | -6.57% | -4.04% | 0.22% | -3.38% | 18.15% | 2.19% | 0.85% |
| 2021 | -5.36% | 11.61% | -2.40% | 8.62% | -0.93% | -6.05% | 6.17% | 9.00% | -5.26% | 12.62% | -8.14% | 8.16% |
| 2020 | -4.58% | -22.41% | -3.29% | 12.90% | 4.47% | 0.49% | -1.76% | -6.49% | 11.88% | 13.79% | 4.65% | |
| Avg | 0.97% | 2.98% | -3.09% | -0.48% | 2.09% | -0.30% | 1.65% | 1.25% | -1.11% | 6.97% | 3.99% | 2.32% |
CB Distribution of Daily % Changes