Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +7.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages +0.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.9% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +33.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.02% | 13.00% | -4.63% | 25.88% | -1.60% | 21.58% | -23.34% | 5.13% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.77% | -7.40% | -4.11% | -5.77% | 12.53% | 11.54% | 13.24% | -4.33% | 13.87% | 21.33% | -0.26% | -0.50% |
| 2024 | 2.04% | 11.21% | 9.72% | -8.36% | 1.18% | -1.60% | 4.36% | 2.86% | 9.83% | -3.47% | 7.95% | -10.67% |
| 2023 | 5.82% | -5.05% | -4.47% | -3.87% | -5.96% | 19.59% | 8.30% | 6.02% | -2.89% | -16.77% | 10.91% | 17.93% |
| 2022 | -2.03% | -6.94% | 18.79% | -5.06% | 2.52% | -17.18% | 11.68% | -6.83% | -11.17% | 32.81% | 9.22% | 1.33% |
| 2021 | 0.98% | 18.07% | 7.41% | -1.18% | 5.69% | -9.73% | -4.49% | 1.99% | -8.96% | 6.86% | -5.23% | 6.93% |
| 2020 | -5.41% | -6.60% | 1.21% | 3.22% | 5.30% | 5.83% | 7.10% | 4.81% | 5.94% | 10.53% | 4.86% | |
| Avg | 4.10% | 2.50% | 2.30% | 0.41% | 2.51% | 4.21% | 2.23% | 1.13% | 0.91% | 7.78% | 5.52% | 3.31% |
CAT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CAT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CAT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CAT Distribution of Daily % Changes