Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.24% | 8.09% | -12.56% | 19.29% | -4.57% | 14.84% | -15.43% | 1.57% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.22% | -0.89% | -2.16% | -1.36% | 14.22% | 2.79% | -5.97% | -4.98% | -8.44% | 0.03% | -7.75% | -3.72% |
| 2024 | -4.77% | 1.59% | 4.59% | 5.78% | 3.09% | 0.12% | 7.97% | 6.86% | 10.59% | -9.42% | 6.39% | -11.48% |
| 2023 | 10.38% | -1.10% | 1.60% | -8.59% | -1.76% | 22.01% | 19.79% | -3.53% | -3.92% | -13.32% | 9.02% | 10.94% |
| 2022 | -12.09% | -5.87% | 2.21% | -16.26% | 2.72% | -8.89% | 13.66% | -3.48% | -9.10% | 12.26% | 11.47% | -6.51% |
| 2021 | 2.07% | -5.12% | 15.58% | 3.50% | 5.39% | 6.09% | 13.68% | 4.25% | -10.14% | 1.14% | 3.62% | 0.51% |
| 2020 | 2.67% | 15.58% | 8.95% | 22.59% | 9.58% | 2.31% | 9.60% | 14.02% | -0.61% | |||
| Avg | 0.77% | -0.55% | 1.54% | 0.72% | 4.95% | 6.56% | 8.04% | 1.45% | -3.11% | 0.05% | 6.13% | -1.81% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.0% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +12.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +15.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
CARR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
CARR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
CARR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
CARR Distribution of Daily % Changes