Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
C - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
C - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
C Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.84% | -4.27% | 2.92% | 12.85% | -1.16% | 11.17% | -5.37% | -0.12% | 0.24% | |||
| 2025 | 15.68% | -1.14% | -11.21% | -3.68% | 11.03% | 13.01% | 10.08% | 3.74% | 5.11% | -0.27% | 2.95% | 12.64% |
| 2024 | 9.20% | -0.27% | 13.97% | -3.02% | 2.48% | 1.85% | 2.24% | -2.52% | -0.06% | 2.51% | 11.42% | -0.68% |
| 2023 | 15.45% | -1.97% | -7.50% | 1.48% | -5.84% | 3.88% | 3.52% | -12.36% | -0.39% | -3.99% | 18.25% | 11.58% |
| 2022 | 7.83% | -8.33% | -9.84% | -8.79% | 10.79% | -13.89% | 13.96% | -5.95% | -14.63% | 10.06% | 6.78% | -6.57% |
| 2021 | -5.15% | 13.61% | 10.43% | -1.39% | 10.49% | -10.11% | -3.71% | 6.34% | -2.41% | -0.74% | -7.89% | -5.20% |
| 2020 | -14.72% | -33.63% | 15.29% | -0.29% | 6.66% | -1.14% | 2.22% | -15.67% | -2.73% | 32.96% | 11.97% | |
| Avg | 7.03% | -2.44% | -4.98% | 1.82% | 3.93% | 1.79% | 2.80% | -1.24% | -4.67% | 0.81% | 10.74% | 3.96% |
C Distribution of Daily % Changes