Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +3.2% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -3.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +24.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.26% | 13.30% | -2.76% | 0.93% | -5.63% | 0.77% | 14.63% | -2.27% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.38% | 1.14% | 2.30% | -16.80% | -3.82% | -4.12% | -5.20% | 8.94% | -4.41% | 3.55% | 6.79% | 9.63% |
| 2024 | -3.65% | 3.85% | 6.86% | -18.03% | -6.49% | 1.07% | 16.26% | 5.03% | 3.58% | 9.00% | 6.19% | -4.49% |
| 2023 | 1.77% | -5.08% | 0.51% | -2.87% | -3.49% | -0.76% | -1.89% | -0.87% | -5.86% | -10.32% | -4.17% | 3.91% |
| 2022 | 4.99% | 5.83% | 7.13% | 3.07% | 0.24% | 2.76% | -4.18% | -8.63% | 5.46% | 9.80% | 3.63% | -10.38% |
| 2021 | -0.97% | -0.16% | 3.74% | -1.12% | 5.29% | 1.67% | 2.32% | -1.49% | -10.78% | -1.30% | -8.17% | 16.26% |
| 2020 | -6.18% | -5.62% | 10.00% | -1.79% | -1.54% | 0.52% | 6.03% | -3.07% | -2.32% | 6.76% | 0.20% | |
| Avg | 1.80% | 1.81% | 1.74% | -3.55% | -2.24% | -0.02% | 3.21% | 1.50% | -2.51% | 1.40% | 1.84% | 2.52% |
BMY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BMY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BMY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BMY Distribution of Daily % Changes