Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.54% | -4.98% | -9.04% | 10.80% | -1.76% | -7.63% | 13.40% | 7.64% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.92% | -9.09% | -2.67% | -3.40% | 7.18% | 7.65% | 5.41% | 1.91% | 3.92% | -7.12% | -3.28% | 2.70% |
| 2024 | -4.62% | 4.78% | 3.39% | -9.48% | 2.30% | 2.65% | 11.33% | 2.89% | 5.91% | 3.32% | 4.26% | 0.72% |
| 2023 | 7.14% | -9.19% | -2.24% | 0.31% | -2.03% | 5.88% | 6.90% | -5.19% | -7.05% | -5.29% | 22.69% | 8.78% |
| 2022 | -10.12% | -9.61% | 3.41% | -18.25% | 7.11% | -8.32% | 9.87% | -0.42% | -16.81% | 17.38% | 10.85% | -0.35% |
| 2021 | -2.81% | -0.96% | 9.20% | 8.67% | 7.05% | 0.23% | -0.89% | 8.78% | -10.70% | 12.50% | -4.12% | 1.68% |
| 2020 | -12.20% | -4.26% | 14.11% | 5.30% | 3.61% | 5.68% | 3.34% | -4.59% | 6.33% | 16.55% | 3.85% | |
| Avg | -0.16% | -5.89% | -0.32% | 0.39% | 3.59% | 0.58% | 7.39% | 1.88% | -4.88% | 4.52% | 7.83% | 2.90% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -5.9% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
BLK - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BLK - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BLK Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BLK Distribution of Daily % Changes