Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +7.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.3% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +15.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is +14.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
BKR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BKR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BKR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.06% | 16.89% | -6.45% | 14.12% | -8.00% | -13.12% | 8.99% | 5.45% | -9.85% | |||
| 2025 | 12.58% | -2.97% | -1.44% | -19.45% | 5.32% | 3.48% | 17.50% | 1.31% | 7.31% | -0.64% | 4.19% | -9.28% |
| 2024 | -16.62% | 4.58% | 13.21% | -2.63% | 3.32% | 5.05% | 10.09% | -8.61% | 2.79% | 5.34% | 16.06% | -6.67% |
| 2023 | 7.48% | -3.00% | -5.69% | 1.32% | -6.17% | 16.00% | 13.22% | 1.69% | -2.40% | -2.55% | -1.39% | 1.27% |
| 2022 | 14.05% | 7.81% | 23.93% | -14.80% | 16.56% | -19.76% | -11.01% | -0.93% | -17.02% | 31.97% | 5.63% | 1.76% |
| 2021 | -3.65% | 22.85% | -11.72% | -7.08% | 22.38% | -6.27% | -7.13% | 8.17% | 8.56% | 1.42% | -6.27% | 3.08% |
| 2020 | -25.72% | -34.74% | 32.86% | 19.75% | -6.78% | 0.65% | -6.81% | -6.93% | 11.14% | 28.21% | 11.38% | |
| Avg | 6.15% | 2.92% | -3.27% | 0.62% | 7.59% | -3.06% | 4.62% | 0.04% | -1.28% | 7.78% | 7.74% | 0.26% |
BKR Distribution of Daily % Changes