Seasonality
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BKNG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.60% | -15.24% | -0.46% | -0.03% | -0.55% | 6.72% | 8.22% | 9.93% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.65% | 5.88% | -7.97% | 10.69% | 8.23% | 5.08% | -4.93% | 1.73% | -3.40% | -5.96% | -3.21% | 9.17% |
| 2024 | -1.12% | -1.10% | 4.85% | -4.85% | 9.40% | 5.14% | -6.22% | 5.23% | 8.00% | 11.02% | 11.24% | -4.33% |
| 2023 | 20.78% | 3.69% | 5.09% | 1.28% | -6.61% | 7.64% | 10.02% | 4.52% | -0.68% | -9.55% | 12.05% | 13.49% |
| 2022 | 2.37% | -11.56% | 8.11% | -5.88% | 1.50% | -22.04% | 10.67% | -3.09% | -12.40% | 13.77% | 11.23% | -3.09% |
| 2021 | -12.70% | 19.76% | 0.06% | 5.85% | -4.24% | -7.35% | -0.45% | 5.57% | 3.23% | 1.98% | -13.17% | 14.15% |
| 2020 | -7.37% | -20.66% | 10.05% | 10.73% | -2.87% | 4.38% | 14.94% | -10.46% | -5.15% | 25.02% | 9.80% | |
| Avg | -0.32% | -0.85% | -1.57% | 2.44% | 2.64% | -1.10% | 3.10% | 4.82% | -2.62% | 1.02% | 7.19% | 6.53% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.2% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.7% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
BKNG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BKNG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BKNG Distribution of Daily % Changes