Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +9.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +11.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.84% | 6.55% | 5.43% | -0.10% | -2.38% | -13.44% | -0.47% | 7.02% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.10% | -1.60% | 3.01% | 3.01% | 0.14% | 2.73% | -0.65% | 6.52% | -3.53% | 16.43% | 2.30% | -7.28% |
| 2024 | -12.74% | 7.93% | 8.64% | -0.74% | 6.42% | -0.76% | -1.44% | -2.98% | -4.68% | -13.06% | 7.62% | -13.35% |
| 2023 | -0.67% | -3.03% | 0.02% | -2.01% | -0.33% | 1.85% | 15.18% | 5.83% | -5.31% | -2.10% | 4.32% | -8.12% |
| 2022 | 5.89% | 6.31% | 5.99% | 2.08% | 5.07% | -23.35% | 1.81% | 8.08% | -16.74% | 19.53% | 6.89% | -4.84% |
| 2021 | -0.21% | 17.80% | 3.51% | 6.50% | 3.42% | -9.99% | -0.67% | -1.82% | 7.41% | 13.92% | -6.04% | 7.84% |
| 2020 | -9.63% | -12.61% | -3.31% | -0.20% | 5.41% | 5.62% | 6.16% | 0.18% | 24.14% | 4.67% | 11.36% | |
| Avg | 3.00% | 3.48% | 2.00% | 0.77% | 1.73% | -5.37% | 2.77% | 3.63% | -3.78% | 9.81% | 3.29% | -2.40% |
BG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BG Distribution of Daily % Changes