Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +50.5% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -8.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +51.5% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +7.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 187 of the year, the current YTD return is +192.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
BE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.21% | 2.84% | -12.96% | 109.14% | 0.58% | 6.21% | -32.01% | 0.24% | 29.25% | |||
| 2025 | 6.17% | 1.87% | -18.15% | -6.82% | 0.82% | 29.51% | 56.31% | 41.59% | 59.75% | 56.27% | -17.34% | -20.46% |
| 2024 | -23.51% | -22.53% | 28.16% | -0.98% | 46.63% | -25.00% | 10.62% | -12.04% | -11.34% | -9.09% | 185.94% | -19.09% |
| 2023 | 30.39% | -13.00% | -8.11% | -16.46% | -17.60% | 19.17% | 9.24% | -16.07% | -11.54% | -21.57% | 38.85% | 2.49% |
| 2022 | -31.24% | 47.21% | 8.78% | -23.15% | -5.60% | -5.82% | 22.61% | 25.61% | -21.33% | -6.40% | 13.79% | -10.19% |
| 2021 | 21.81% | -18.28% | -5.19% | -3.99% | -6.93% | 11.17% | -18.87% | -1.74% | -12.61% | 66.99% | -12.09% | -20.20% |
| 2020 | 15.10% | -42.34% | 46.65% | 4.69% | 35.49% | 11.76% | 28.78% | 14.75% | -29.66% | 93.99% | 16.88% | |
| Avg | 12.97% | 1.89% | -7.12% | 14.91% | 3.23% | 10.10% | 8.52% | 9.48% | 6.71% | 9.42% | 50.52% | -8.43% |
BE Distribution of Daily % Changes