Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.3% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -3.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +17.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.36% | 18.04% | -11.68% | 3.33% | -10.49% | 14.56% | 4.01% | -4.75% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.03% | -5.40% | -0.80% | -0.25% | 3.16% | 5.08% | 2.09% | -8.07% | -3.85% | -6.78% | 5.38% | 7.38% |
| 2024 | -3.60% | 15.82% | 5.22% | 3.28% | -0.20% | -13.30% | 6.35% | -0.03% | 6.76% | -12.75% | 4.91% | -11.02% |
| 2023 | 13.88% | -3.14% | -1.96% | -3.50% | -3.43% | 13.78% | 0.82% | -6.88% | -8.58% | -3.27% | 15.25% | 4.03% |
| 2022 | 0.86% | -7.38% | 0.29% | -9.82% | -12.42% | -2.99% | 6.76% | -23.72% | -13.42% | 2.21% | 13.96% | -8.81% |
| 2021 | -5.54% | -2.82% | -0.76% | 10.50% | -12.10% | -1.39% | -0.17% | 18.89% | -6.24% | 1.68% | 2.37% | 3.02% |
| 2020 | -2.18% | -8.23% | 1.44% | 8.88% | -2.48% | 5.96% | 9.36% | 3.42% | 7.07% | 8.04% | -2.95% | |
| Avg | 2.33% | 1.85% | -2.56% | 0.71% | -3.80% | 1.89% | 3.69% | -1.74% | -3.65% | -1.97% | 8.32% | -1.39% |
BALL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BALL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BALL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
BALL Distribution of Daily % Changes