Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +14.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -3.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
BAC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BAC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BAC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.27% | -6.33% | -1.61% | 9.66% | -3.48% | 11.00% | 8.72% | -0.02% | -9.13% | |||
| 2025 | 5.35% | -0.43% | -8.91% | -4.43% | 10.66% | 7.86% | -0.11% | 7.34% | 2.24% | 3.61% | 0.37% | 3.05% |
| 2024 | 1.01% | 2.21% | 9.85% | -2.40% | 8.05% | 0.05% | 1.36% | 1.09% | -1.99% | 5.39% | 13.61% | -6.98% |
| 2023 | 7.13% | -3.33% | -16.08% | 2.38% | -5.09% | 4.06% | 11.54% | -9.66% | -4.50% | -3.80% | 16.68% | 10.43% |
| 2022 | 3.71% | -4.20% | -6.29% | -13.44% | 4.26% | -15.84% | 8.61% | -0.59% | -9.55% | 19.34% | 5.02% | -11.99% |
| 2021 | -2.18% | 17.07% | 12.02% | 4.76% | 4.59% | -2.33% | -6.96% | 8.84% | 2.20% | 12.56% | -6.93% | 0.53% |
| 2020 | -13.19% | -25.03% | 13.28% | 0.29% | -0.85% | 4.76% | 3.46% | -5.76% | -1.62% | 18.82% | 8.31% | |
| Avg | 1.96% | -1.17% | -5.15% | 1.40% | 2.75% | 0.57% | 3.99% | 1.49% | -2.89% | 5.91% | 7.93% | 0.56% |
BAC Distribution of Daily % Changes