Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -10.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +21.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -10.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -10.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
BA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
BA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
BA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.65% | -2.65% | -12.53% | 15.07% | 0.93% | -6.35% | -0.15% | -3.87% | -3.78% | |||
| 2025 | -0.27% | -1.07% | -2.34% | 7.44% | 13.14% | 1.07% | 5.88% | 5.79% | -8.03% | -6.86% | -5.98% | 14.88% |
| 2024 | -19.04% | -3.47% | -5.27% | -13.03% | 5.82% | 2.48% | 4.72% | -8.85% | -12.49% | -1.80% | 4.11% | 13.87% |
| 2023 | 11.82% | -5.38% | 5.40% | -2.66% | -0.52% | 2.65% | 13.11% | -6.20% | -14.44% | -2.54% | 23.99% | 12.53% |
| 2022 | -0.54% | 2.55% | -6.74% | -22.28% | -11.72% | 4.05% | 16.52% | 0.59% | -24.44% | 17.70% | 25.52% | 6.49% |
| 2021 | -9.28% | 9.18% | 20.15% | -8.01% | 5.42% | -3.02% | -5.46% | -3.08% | 0.20% | -5.87% | -4.43% | 1.75% |
| 2020 | -13.05% | -45.79% | -5.44% | 3.42% | 25.68% | -13.80% | 8.75% | -3.82% | -12.63% | 45.93% | 1.59% | |
| Avg | -1.61% | -1.98% | -6.73% | -4.13% | 2.36% | 3.79% | 2.97% | -0.98% | -10.50% | -2.00% | 14.86% | 8.52% |
BA Distribution of Daily % Changes