Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.8% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +3.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
AWK - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.05% | 6.06% | 0.04% | -5.64% | -3.32% | 6.74% | 1.97% | 2.19% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.12% | 9.77% | 8.49% | -0.35% | -2.16% | -2.70% | 0.81% | 2.92% | -3.01% | -7.73% | 1.93% | 0.33% |
| 2024 | -6.04% | -3.86% | 3.10% | 0.09% | 7.52% | -1.23% | 10.22% | 1.08% | 2.18% | -5.56% | -0.28% | -9.09% |
| 2023 | 2.67% | -9.92% | 4.35% | 1.20% | -2.10% | -1.18% | 3.28% | -5.42% | -10.75% | -4.99% | 12.71% | 0.11% |
| 2022 | -14.86% | -5.67% | 9.56% | -6.92% | -1.40% | -1.64% | 4.48% | -4.09% | -12.32% | 11.66% | 4.91% | 0.43% |
| 2021 | 3.62% | -10.48% | 5.67% | 4.05% | -0.23% | -0.57% | 10.37% | 7.50% | -7.25% | 3.04% | -2.87% | 12.04% |
| 2020 | -8.87% | -3.32% | 1.78% | 4.85% | 1.31% | 14.46% | -3.67% | 2.50% | 3.89% | 2.26% | 0.06% | |
| Avg | -2.59% | -3.28% | 3.99% | -0.83% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 6.51% | -0.28% | -4.77% | 0.05% | 3.11% | 0.65% |
AWK - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AWK Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AWK Distribution of Daily % Changes