Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.4% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.4% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.00% | 5.84% | -11.62% | -5.07% | -2.96% | 2.72% | 4.55% | 5.42% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.75% | 1.21% | -4.86% | -3.85% | 3.87% | -0.75% | -4.39% | 2.31% | -5.00% | 7.84% | -1.44% | 6.10% |
| 2024 | -1.34% | 8.56% | 3.49% | -2.67% | 4.75% | -3.56% | -0.83% | 2.32% | -0.09% | -6.22% | -0.52% | -8.75% |
| 2023 | 4.66% | -3.43% | -1.79% | -2.49% | -7.65% | 7.14% | 7.11% | 2.37% | -2.61% | -4.71% | 11.74% | 4.37% |
| 2022 | -5.15% | -14.22% | -0.88% | 3.81% | -4.04% | -6.19% | 17.66% | -3.59% | -11.03% | 4.21% | 14.03% | -6.01% |
| 2021 | -2.73% | 16.13% | 5.18% | 16.62% | 2.97% | -4.37% | 0.21% | 7.30% | -8.07% | 5.07% | -5.51% | 5.61% |
| 2020 | -12.76% | -10.59% | 8.36% | 0.25% | 3.62% | -0.66% | 1.81% | 11.35% | 8.25% | 7.91% | 4.30% | |
| Avg | -0.55% | 0.19% | -3.01% | 2.10% | -0.40% | -0.20% | 3.38% | 2.09% | -2.58% | 2.41% | 4.37% | 0.94% |
AVY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AVY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AVY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AVY Distribution of Daily % Changes