Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.5% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +4.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -2.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.01% | -0.25% | -6.80% | 12.03% | -0.27% | 4.35% | -1.63% | -0.84% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.70% | 2.11% | -4.33% | -2.16% | -1.53% | -0.73% | -8.46% | 5.14% | -0.47% | -9.97% | 4.61% | 0.61% |
| 2024 | -4.39% | -1.11% | 5.81% | 2.16% | 1.64% | 8.27% | -0.95% | 10.16% | 0.55% | -1.62% | 6.20% | -5.81% |
| 2023 | 9.86% | -2.77% | -1.58% | 7.32% | -3.54% | 9.76% | -0.33% | -2.56% | -5.67% | -3.49% | 4.34% | 9.21% |
| 2022 | -3.31% | -2.31% | 4.74% | -8.41% | -8.58% | -5.83% | 10.14% | -6.09% | -7.53% | -4.92% | -0.13% | -6.73% |
| 2021 | 2.02% | 7.38% | 5.88% | 4.06% | 7.78% | 1.61% | 9.17% | 0.77% | -3.46% | 7.56% | 0.93% | 6.41% |
| 2020 | -7.43% | -25.90% | 10.72% | -4.26% | 0.17% | -0.98% | 3.23% | -4.51% | -6.84% | 19.74% | -2.71% | |
| Avg | 0.48% | -0.63% | -3.17% | 3.67% | -1.25% | 2.51% | 0.99% | 1.77% | -3.52% | -3.21% | 5.95% | 0.16% |
AVB - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AVB - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AVB Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AVB Distribution of Daily % Changes