Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +29.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -5.1% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +23.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.3% historically, with January alone posting a 60% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -92.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -29.79% | -8.10% | -8.46% | 12.15% | 37.36% | -15.96% | -23.16% | -20.32% | ||||
| 2025 | 14.13% | -11.86% | -18.66% | 1.64% | 45.93% | -10.92% | 11.60% | 22.50% | 50.14% | -11.30% | -5.94% | 12.40% |
| 2024 | 3.21% | 45.20% | 15.91% | 1.95% | 15.46% | 2.14% | -7.35% | 20.45% | 40.57% | 29.75% | 98.80% | -3.84% |
| 2023 | 20.61% | 6.30% | 16.67% | 7.94% | 47.12% | 2.88% | 22.04% | 37.64% | -7.54% | -8.81% | 2.85% | 6.32% |
| 2022 | -31.66% | -9.84% | -5.18% | -30.72% | -0.10% | -9.63% | 3.19% | -30.70% | -20.87% | -12.98% | -15.04% | -26.93% |
| 2021 | 28.10% | 1.16% | -18.23% | 14.53% | 2.80% | 35.76% | -7.27% | 3.46% | ||||
| Avg | -4.70% | 4.34% | 0.06% | -1.41% | 28.98% | -5.06% | -1.98% | 12.88% | 13.02% | 6.48% | 14.68% | -1.72% |
APP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
APP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
APP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
APP Distribution of Daily % Changes