Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.7% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +17.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
APH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
APH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
APH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.62% | 1.37% | -13.32% | 16.56% | 1.01% | 18.71% | -8.86% | -1.34% | 3.84% | |||
| 2025 | 1.92% | -5.91% | -1.26% | 17.32% | 16.87% | 10.00% | 7.86% | 2.21% | 13.84% | 12.60% | 1.12% | -3.90% |
| 2024 | 1.99% | 8.05% | 5.81% | 4.70% | 9.61% | 1.95% | -4.62% | 4.96% | -3.14% | 2.85% | 8.40% | -4.19% |
| 2023 | 4.77% | -2.82% | 5.71% | -7.65% | -0.03% | 12.88% | 3.96% | 0.08% | -4.73% | -4.10% | 12.96% | 9.19% |
| 2022 | -9.00% | -4.50% | -0.61% | -5.11% | -0.90% | -8.85% | 19.80% | -4.67% | -8.68% | 13.25% | 6.07% | -5.08% |
| 2021 | -4.50% | 0.64% | 5.22% | 2.08% | -0.12% | 1.93% | 5.96% | 5.71% | -4.25% | 4.83% | 4.96% | 8.80% |
| 2020 | -7.83% | -20.26% | 21.10% | 9.40% | -0.51% | 10.39% | 3.82% | -1.16% | 4.22% | 15.93% | 0.19% | |
| Avg | 0.30% | -1.57% | -2.67% | 7.00% | 5.12% | 5.16% | 4.93% | 1.54% | -1.36% | 5.61% | 8.24% | 0.83% |
APH Distribution of Daily % Changes