Seasonality
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Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +27.4% with a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -9.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +25.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +49.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
APA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
APA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.00% | 14.99% | 39.74% | -3.39% | -10.56% | -10.60% | 15.39% | 8.44% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.01% | -5.61% | 1.55% | -24.86% | 9.46% | 7.53% | 6.90% | 20.37% | 4.57% | -5.67% | 10.24% | -2.04% |
| 2024 | -11.96% | -4.92% | 15.41% | -7.84% | -2.89% | -3.57% | 6.78% | -8.66% | -14.15% | -2.55% | -4.03% | 1.94% |
| 2023 | -4.51% | -13.42% | -6.04% | 2.85% | -13.76% | 7.52% | 19.28% | 8.27% | -6.25% | -2.80% | -9.37% | -0.33% |
| 2022 | 23.98% | 7.29% | 16.00% | -0.69% | 14.85% | -25.76% | 6.89% | 5.22% | -12.58% | 33.76% | 3.06% | -0.36% |
| 2021 | 0.78% | 38.17% | -9.28% | 11.90% | 4.00% | 3.99% | -13.19% | 3.89% | 10.01% | 22.59% | -1.68% | 4.35% |
| 2020 | -9.18% | -83.23% | 213.84% | -17.51% | 25.12% | 13.91% | -3.58% | -36.01% | -12.13% | 55.30% | 10.09% | |
| Avg | 2.21% | 3.90% | -3.69% | 27.40% | -2.34% | 0.60% | 7.99% | 4.25% | -9.07% | 5.54% | 8.92% | 2.27% |
APA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
APA Distribution of Daily % Changes