Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.92% | -4.05% | -3.78% | -3.45% | 1.68% | 4.95% | 8.70% | -1.08% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.25% | 10.53% | -2.45% | -11.10% | 5.09% | -4.12% | -0.29% | 3.39% | -2.84% | -4.46% | 3.89% | -0.29% |
| 2024 | 2.76% | 5.88% | 5.61% | -15.29% | -0.13% | 4.24% | 11.90% | 4.85% | 0.66% | 6.03% | 6.92% | -8.27% |
| 2023 | 6.36% | -4.59% | 3.70% | 3.33% | -5.19% | 11.97% | -7.56% | 4.67% | -2.75% | -4.38% | 6.17% | -11.41% |
| 2022 | -7.85% | 5.68% | 11.46% | -11.40% | -4.28% | -2.17% | 8.13% | -4.05% | -4.08% | 5.29% | 9.52% | -2.64% |
| 2021 | -3.65% | 12.12% | 1.05% | 9.50% | 0.77% | -5.77% | 9.12% | 10.32% | -0.38% | 12.13% | -7.55% | 1.62% |
| 2020 | -5.56% | -20.65% | 4.89% | 14.06% | -2.21% | 6.78% | -2.55% | 3.16% | -10.58% | 11.35% | 3.11% | |
| Avg | -0.01% | 2.86% | -0.72% | -3.36% | 1.71% | 0.98% | 5.25% | 2.77% | -1.04% | 0.67% | 5.05% | -2.98% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +5.3% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Apr shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Apr averages -3.4% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
AON - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AON - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AON Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AON Distribution of Daily % Changes