Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.4% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.4% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +10.9% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
AMZN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AMZN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AMZN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.67% | -12.24% | -0.82% | 27.27% | 2.11% | -11.93% | 13.95% | -4.35% | -4.04% | |||
| 2025 | 8.34% | -10.69% | -10.37% | -3.07% | 11.16% | 7.01% | 6.71% | -2.18% | -4.12% | 11.23% | -4.50% | -1.03% |
| 2024 | 2.15% | 13.89% | 2.05% | -2.98% | 0.82% | 9.53% | -3.24% | -4.54% | 4.39% | 0.04% | 11.53% | 5.53% |
| 2023 | 22.77% | -8.63% | 9.61% | 2.09% | 14.35% | 8.11% | 2.55% | 3.24% | -7.89% | 4.70% | 9.77% | 4.00% |
| 2022 | -10.28% | 2.67% | 6.14% | -23.75% | -3.28% | -11.65% | 27.06% | -6.06% | -10.86% | -9.35% | -5.76% | -12.99% |
| 2021 | -1.56% | -3.53% | 0.04% | 12.07% | -7.05% | 6.74% | -3.27% | 4.30% | -5.35% | 2.66% | 3.99% | -4.93% |
| 2020 | -6.22% | 3.50% | 26.89% | -1.28% | 12.96% | 14.71% | 9.05% | -8.76% | -3.58% | 4.34% | 2.81% | |
| Avg | 4.18% | -3.54% | 1.45% | 5.50% | 2.41% | 2.97% | 8.35% | -0.08% | -5.43% | 0.95% | 3.23% | -1.10% |
AMZN Distribution of Daily % Changes