Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +3.4% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -6.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +5.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.11% | 7.02% | -10.05% | 6.93% | 2.33% | -11.68% | 5.99% | 1.28% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.84% | 11.18% | 5.83% | 4.44% | -4.77% | 3.78% | -5.71% | -2.18% | -4.82% | -6.94% | 1.28% | -2.20% |
| 2024 | -9.37% | 1.64% | -0.64% | -12.39% | 14.09% | 0.13% | 13.39% | 1.66% | 3.79% | -7.51% | -2.13% | -11.46% |
| 2023 | 5.44% | -11.36% | 3.20% | 0.77% | -9.76% | 6.01% | -1.87% | -4.72% | -9.30% | 9.45% | 17.17% | 4.22% |
| 2022 | -14.02% | -9.79% | 10.73% | -3.55% | 6.27% | 0.38% | 5.96% | -6.20% | -15.49% | -2.79% | 6.79% | -3.54% |
| 2021 | 1.29% | -4.94% | 10.61% | 7.12% | 0.27% | 6.25% | 4.69% | 3.31% | -8.74% | 6.24% | -6.91% | 11.99% |
| 2020 | -2.13% | -3.99% | 9.76% | 8.47% | 0.56% | 1.10% | -4.68% | -2.51% | -5.00% | 0.68% | -2.37% | |
| Avg | -2.28% | -1.20% | 2.24% | 1.87% | 2.41% | 0.78% | 3.36% | -2.13% | -6.18% | -1.09% | 2.81% | -0.56% |
AMT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AMT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AMT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AMT Distribution of Daily % Changes