Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +4.2% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +5.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.6% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +24.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.45% | 14.32% | -9.35% | -1.59% | -2.00% | 7.52% | 6.36% | 7.80% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.51% | 8.80% | 1.13% | -6.62% | -0.07% | -3.11% | 5.69% | -1.71% | -1.92% | 5.75% | 16.58% | -5.25% |
| 2024 | 9.11% | -12.18% | 3.83% | -3.65% | 12.44% | 2.16% | 6.41% | 1.11% | -3.48% | -0.64% | -10.94% | -7.86% |
| 2023 | -3.90% | -7.41% | 4.36% | -0.83% | -7.09% | 0.62% | 5.46% | 10.36% | 4.85% | -4.86% | 6.28% | 6.82% |
| 2022 | 0.96% | 0.56% | 6.77% | -3.57% | 10.98% | -5.23% | 1.71% | -2.15% | -6.20% | 19.94% | 6.67% | -8.30% |
| 2021 | 5.01% | -6.15% | 10.62% | -3.69% | -0.01% | 2.44% | -0.91% | -5.91% | -5.71% | -2.67% | -3.10% | 13.12% |
| 2020 | -6.90% | 1.50% | 18.00% | -3.33% | 2.68% | 3.74% | 4.23% | 0.33% | -14.64% | 3.05% | 3.55% | |
| Avg | 4.19% | -1.28% | 2.69% | -0.28% | 1.56% | 1.01% | 4.07% | 0.99% | -2.02% | 0.48% | 3.09% | 0.35% |
AMGN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AMGN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AMGN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
AMGN Distribution of Daily % Changes