Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +16.7% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.8% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +26.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is +164.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
AMD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
AMD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
AMD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.54% | -15.43% | 1.61% | 74.26% | 45.59% | 12.56% | -18.03% | -1.14% | 30.57% | |||
| 2025 | -4.01% | -13.88% | 2.88% | -5.25% | 13.74% | 28.15% | 24.25% | -7.76% | -0.52% | 58.30% | -15.07% | -1.55% |
| 2024 | 13.76% | 14.81% | -6.25% | -12.25% | 5.38% | -2.81% | -10.93% | 2.82% | 10.45% | -12.20% | -4.78% | -11.95% |
| 2023 | 16.03% | 4.56% | 24.73% | -8.82% | 32.27% | -3.64% | 0.43% | -7.59% | -2.74% | -4.20% | 23.01% | 21.67% |
| 2022 | -20.60% | 7.96% | -11.35% | -21.79% | 19.11% | -24.93% | 23.54% | -10.16% | -25.34% | -5.21% | 29.25% | -16.57% |
| 2021 | -6.62% | -1.32% | -7.11% | 3.97% | -1.89% | 17.30% | 13.05% | 4.27% | -7.06% | 16.84% | 31.72% | -9.14% |
| 2020 | -3.23% | 0.00% | 15.19% | 2.69% | -2.21% | 47.18% | 17.29% | -9.72% | -8.17% | 23.07% | -1.03% | |
| Avg | 1.52% | -0.93% | 0.64% | 6.48% | 16.70% | 3.49% | 11.35% | -0.32% | -5.82% | 7.56% | 14.53% | -3.09% |
AMD Distribution of Daily % Changes