Seasonality
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Jun is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jun averages +16.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -7.5% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +16.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -38.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
ALNY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.99% | -1.52% | -0.62% | -6.46% | -2.43% | -0.31% | -31.73% | 11.25% | ||||
| 2025 | 15.30% | -9.05% | 9.43% | -2.51% | 15.70% | 7.07% | 20.29% | 13.84% | 2.13% | 0.01% | -1.05% | -11.87% |
| 2024 | -9.67% | -12.62% | -1.09% | -3.68% | 3.11% | 63.71% | -2.28% | 10.62% | 4.70% | -3.07% | -5.07% | -7.02% |
| 2023 | -4.73% | -15.44% | 4.63% | -0.56% | -7.12% | 2.66% | 2.87% | 1.24% | -10.47% | -14.29% | 10.84% | 13.77% |
| 2022 | -18.86% | 14.72% | 3.45% | -18.29% | -5.72% | 15.94% | -2.61% | 45.50% | -3.15% | 3.55% | 6.43% | 7.73% |
| 2021 | 15.78% | -1.58% | -4.67% | -0.39% | 0.96% | 19.39% | 5.56% | 12.57% | -6.27% | -15.49% | 15.19% | -7.74% |
| 2020 | 2.50% | -7.49% | 20.99% | 2.71% | 9.49% | -1.59% | -9.00% | 9.77% | -15.54% | 5.64% | 0.05% | |
| Avg | -2.86% | -3.28% | 0.52% | -1.56% | 1.03% | 16.85% | -1.36% | 12.46% | -0.55% | -7.47% | 5.33% | -0.85% |
ALNY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALNY Distribution of Daily % Changes
ALNY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years