Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.2% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -3.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.4% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.88% | -2.56% | -9.50% | -5.38% | -5.39% | 8.46% | 12.04% | 4.69% | ||||
| 2025 | 1.57% | -3.03% | 1.77% | 6.70% | 2.51% | 1.37% | 15.13% | 2.34% | 4.45% | -6.53% | 0.16% | -4.10% |
| 2024 | -2.21% | 3.21% | 5.73% | -9.76% | 0.21% | -2.62% | 15.79% | 1.48% | 5.32% | -4.19% | 0.87% | -6.89% |
| 2023 | 11.68% | -4.12% | -4.90% | 3.51% | -5.20% | 15.03% | -2.63% | -2.61% | -8.05% | -5.60% | 7.86% | 19.87% |
| 2022 | -7.33% | -6.69% | -3.79% | 4.06% | -2.27% | -11.96% | 7.97% | -10.03% | -5.29% | 16.83% | 8.48% | -7.04% |
| 2021 | -8.05% | 1.65% | 15.83% | 6.97% | 4.54% | -0.58% | -1.94% | 5.41% | -7.96% | -2.94% | -3.63% | 7.41% |
| 2020 | -11.08% | -19.75% | 9.26% | -0.84% | 2.85% | -2.70% | 3.95% | -4.02% | -0.41% | 15.78% | 2.35% | |
| Avg | -0.08% | -3.23% | -2.08% | 2.20% | -0.92% | 1.79% | 6.24% | 0.09% | -2.59% | -0.47% | 4.92% | 1.93% |
ALLE - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ALLE - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ALLE Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ALLE Distribution of Daily % Changes